enDaily Analysis 21/02/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
• The dollar index fell below 104 on Wednesday, extending losses from the previous session as investors await the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting to gauge monetary policy expectations.
• The dollar index is on track for its third straight day of losses.
• Gold rises as dollar safe-haven demand fades, focus turns to Fed minutes
• The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s January policy meeting are due to be released at 22:00 Mecca time today.
• WTI crude rises on Middle East tensions
• Brent crude is trading at $82.00 and WTI crude is trading at $77.00.
• China boosts Asian stocks as investors brace for Nvidia earnings
• Bitcoin whales step away from large short positions, showing confidence in price rise
• Bitcoin is trading at $51,500.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2029.62
The first scenario: Buy gold at a fraction and hold above 2034.66, with a target price of 2039.72 and 2046.66. Alternative scenario: Sell gold at a break and hold below 2026.43, with a target price of 2019.98 and then 2012.63.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
CRUDE OIL
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $77.10 per barrel
The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $77.54, targeting a price of $78.01, then 78.57. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $76.86, targeting a price of $76.34, then 75.75.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
EURUSD
General trend: – Bearish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.08241
The first scenario: Buying Eurodollars at a break of 1.08014, targeting a price of 1.08426, then 1.08650. Alternative scenario: Selling Eurodollars at a break of 1.08014, targeting a price of 1.07854, then 1.07641.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
GBPUSD
Trend: down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.26192
The first scenario: Selling the pound dollar at a fraction and holding below the level of 1.26124, targeting the price of 1.25927, then 1.25703. Alternative scenario: Buying the pound dollar at a break, and holding steady by closing above 1.26460, targeting the price of 1.26746, then 1.26967.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages leads to a decline
NAS100
Trend: down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 17565
The first scenario: sell the Nasdaq at a break and hold with a close below 17533, targeting the price of 17491 then 17447. Alternative scenario: buy the Nasdaq at a break and hold with a close above 17592, targeting the price of 17631 then 17678.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages leads to a decline
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
- From the United States of America: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting at 22:00
Fundamental Analysis
• The dollar index fell below 104 on Wednesday, extending losses from the previous session as investors await the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting to gauge monetary policy expectations.
• On Tuesday, the dollar fell 0.3%, reflecting a decline in Treasury yields amid growing uncertainty about the timing and size of monetary easing this year.
• The Federal Reserve is currently expected to keep interest rates unchanged in March and May, but there is a 55% chance that the central bank will cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points in June.
• Investors are also looking to U.S. PMI reports this week for clues on how well the private sector is adapting to current conditions.
• The dollar weakened across the board, with selling interest most evident against the Australian and New Zealand dollars.
• Gold prices rose for a sixth straight session on Wednesday, supported by a weaker dollar and safe-haven buying, ahead of the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting.
• U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose above $77 a barrel on Wednesday, recovering some of the previous session’s losses, as rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to add a risk premium to oil prices.
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