Daily Market Analysis

 

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

 

The dollar index steadied near 106 on Monday, hovering near its highest level in more than five months as US inflation raised concerns that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer.

Safe-haven gold hits record highs and heads for weekly gains

• Gold rises amid Middle East conflict, boosting safe-haven appeal
• Gold hits an all-time high of $2430.29 an ounce
• Fed’s Collins eyes two rate cuts this year

“Gold remains in high demand as a financial asset given the mix of geopolitical risks and potential Fed easing in the second half of the year. In many ways, gold is taking on the appearance of an ‘all-weather asset’,” said Tim Waterer, senior market analyst at Franklin Templeton Investments, “given its ability to rise in the face of the changing market dynamics of 2024.”

• Gold rose above $2400 in the previous session and has gained more than 14% so far this year, supported by strong central bank buying and safe-haven flows amid ongoing geopolitical risks.

Despite recent US economic data showing a strong labor market and rising inflation rates, Boston Fed President Susan Collins is looking to make two rate cuts this year.

“The $2500 level seems like a more actionable near- to medium-term target, while the momentum remains on the side of the precious metal (gold), which has been the case so far in 2024,” Waterer said.

• Chinese physical gold premiums rose last week, driven by strong demand to support the weak yuan, while record high prices in India forced dealers to offer discounts for the sixth straight week.

“We had a pretty clear path that the Fed was going to be the first mover, probably,” said Eric Leve, chief investment officer at Baird Wealth Management and Investments. “The data we’ve been getting is already undermining that.” “I can see clear reasons why the dollar could go higher.”

“The dollar has room to run. We have the strongest economy right now, generally speaking, and the path of yields is upwards,” said a strategist. “While Europe is struggling in terms of growth.”

Asian stocks fall, gold rises as Middle East conflict dominates markets

Oil prices fall after Iran attack as market removes risk premium

• Brent crude trades at $90.00 and West Texas Intermediate crude at $85.00
• Iran launched a revenge attack on Israel over the weekend
• Brent and WTI fell with the risk premium already factored in
• Uncertainty over Israel’s response remains – analysts say
• The attack, which involved more than 300 missiles and drones, was the first on Israel by another country in more than three decades, raising fears of a wider regional conflict affecting oil flows through the Middle East.
• But the attack, which Iran described as a response to an airstrike on its consulate in Damascus, caused only modest damage, as Israel’s Iron Dome defense system shot down missiles. Israel, which is at war with the Iranian-backed Hamas in Gaza, has not confirmed or denied bombing the consulate.

The People’s Bank of China keeps key interest rates unchanged

Bitcoin price started to drop sharply amid Israel-Iran tensions. BTC price dropped to $60,500 and is currently trying to make a recovery wave.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2359.45

The first scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2363.73, with a target price of 2370.16 and 2377.49. Alternative scenario: Sell gold at a break and hold below 2352.35, with a price target of 2345.90 and then 2338.54.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $84.53 per barrel

The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $84.99, targeting a price of $85.46, then 86.03. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $84.32, targeting a price of $83.79, then 83.21.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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EURUSD

 

General trend: – Bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.06612 scenario

First: Sell the Euro/Dollar at a break of 1.06448, targeting a price of 1.06288, then 1.06075. Alternative scenario: Buy the Euro/Dollar at a break of 1.06675, targeting a price of 1.06860, then 1.07084.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.24726

The first scenario: selling the pound dollar at a break and holding below the level of 1.24512, targeting the price of 1.24315 then 1.24091. The alternative scenario: buying the pound dollar at a breaking point and holding steady at a close above 1.24848, targeting the price of 1.25134 then 1.25355.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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NAS100

 

Trend: down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 18252

The first scenario: Selling the Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close below 18214, targeting the price of 18172 then 18128. The alternative scenario: Buying the Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close above 18273, targeting the price of 18312 then 18359.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

– United States Retail Sales (excluding autos) (MoM) (Mar) 3:30 PM EDT

– United States Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) 3:30 PM EDT

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

In light of last week’s hotter-than-expected US CPI report, investors have reduced their bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts and pushed back the start of the easing cycle to September.

Markets are now looking to US retail sales, business inventories, and manufacturing data on Monday for more clues.

The currency also found some safe-haven bids after the unprecedented Iranian attack on Israel over the weekend, which markets fear could lead to a wider Middle East conflict. However, Israel has shown no intention of immediate retaliation, and the United States has said it will not engage in offensive operations against Iran despite its strong commitment to Israel’s security.

Gold extended its gains on Monday, hovering near record highs hit in the previous session, as traders closely watched developments surrounding the Middle East conflict, driving bids for safe-haven assets like bullion.

Oil prices fell in trading on Monday, as market participants reduced risk premiums after the Iranian attack on Israel late Saturday, which the Israeli government said caused limited damage.