Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar hovers at its highest levels in 3 months after the release of a high Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.
• Gold remains below the key level of $2000 as markets ease off bets of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
• Elon Musk warns about the state of U.S. domestic debt after it surpasses 34 trillion!
• At least 7 officials from the Federal Reserve are scheduled to speak this week.
• The focus shifts to the U.S. Producer Price Index report on Friday.
• China and Hong Kong are still on holiday.
• Oil drifts lower due to high inflation and larger-than-expected U.S. crude inventories.
• Brent crude trades around $82.00 and West Texas Intermediate around $77.00.
• Bitcoin price begins a downward correction from the $50,400 area. BTC tested $48,250 and is currently attempting new highs above $50,000.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1991.89

First scenario: Sell gold at a fraction and hold below 1988.33, targeting 1981.88 and 1974.53. Alternative scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 1996.56, targeting 2001.62 and then 2008.56.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $77.42 per barrel.

First scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest levels of $77.70, targeting a price of $78.17, then 78.74. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $77.02, targeting a price of $76.50, then 75.92.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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EURUSD

 

General trend: – Bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.07178 First scenario: Sell the Euro/Dollar at a break of 1.07037, targeting a price of 1.06877, then 1.06664. Alternative scenario: Buy the Euro/Dollar at a break of 1.07265, targeting a price of 1.07449, then 1.07674.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.26054

 The first scenario: selling the pound dollar at a fraction and holding below the level of 1.25835, targeting a price of 1.25638, then 1.25414. Alternative scenario: buying the pound dollar at a break, and holding steady at a close above 1.26171, targeting a price of 1.26457, then 1.26679.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages leads to a decline

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NAS100

 

Trend: down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 17704

The first scenario: Selling the Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close below 17662, targeting the price of 17620 then 17577. The alternative scenario: Buying the Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close above 17722, targeting the price of 17761 then 17807.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages leads to a decline

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

• From China, Chinese New Year holiday.
• From the UK, Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Yearly) (January) at 10:00.
• From Europe, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Yearly) (Q4) at 13:00.
• From the United States, Crude Oil Inventories at 18:30.

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

• The dollar rose to its highest levels in three months around 104.8 on Wednesday after jumping 0.7 percent in the previous session, as higher-than-expected US consumer price inflation data bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates later than the market expects.
• The headline inflation rate fell to 3.1% in January from 3.4% in December, but it came in higher than the expectations of 2.9%.
• The core inflation rate, however, remained unchanged at 3.9%, contrary to expectations of a slowdown to 3.7%.
• There is currently no interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve in March, and the possibility of action in May has been reduced.
• Investors are now looking for comments from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee later on Wednesday for further guidance.
• The dollar strengthened across the board and reached its highest levels in three months against the euro, the Australian dollar, and the yuan.
• Gold prices stabilized near a two-month low on Wednesday, trading below the key level of $2000 per ounce, as stronger-than-expected US inflation report prompted traders to scale back bets on deeper interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
• The next major support level for spot gold is $1975 per ounce, coinciding with the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in December, where they announced interest rate cuts by three-quarters of a point in 2024, leading to a rise in gold.
• Oil prices fell in Asian trading on Wednesday after an American industry group announced that crude inventories rose more than expected last week and as investors curbed expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.