enDaily Analysis 11/04/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index steadied near a five-month high above 105 on Thursday after rising 1% in the previous session, as stronger-than-expected US inflation data raised concerns that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer.
Gold drifts higher as rising geopolitical tensions boost safe-haven appeal
- Gold hit an all-time high of $2365.09 an ounce on Tuesday
- Markets are now adjusting to a long-term high rate scenario
- Silver hit its highest level since June 2021 on Wednesday
“Above-consensus consumer prices for the third straight month this year are still testing the Fed’s tolerance for inflation,” an analyst said.
Data released overnight showed that US inflation in March came in hotter than expected again, dashing any chance of a June rate cut. The core Consumer Price Index rose 0.4%, beating expectations of a 0.3% rise.
Markets are now adjusting to a long-term high-rate scenario, which translates into some near-term profit-taking in gold prices overnight,” he added, adding that the downside looks limited during the session as market participants still see gold. As a good hedge against geopolitical tensions.
Strong central bank buying, safe-haven inflows amid ongoing geopolitical risks and demand from momentum funds have boosted bullion gains by 14% so far this year.
Fed officials last month expressed concern about the lack of progress on inflation, warranting a longer period of tight monetary policy, according to the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s March 19-20 meeting.
Chinese yuan falls to 5-month low as markets hit by hot US inflation
Bank of Canada holds interest rate steady at 5%, seeks confirmation of slowing CPI
Nvidia shares down 10% from record high
Oil continues to gain amid rising tensions in the Middle East, with Brent crude trading at $90.00 and West Texas Intermediate crude at $85.00
- Both contracts rose more than 1% in the previous session after three of the sons of a Hamas leader were killed in an Israeli airstrike in Gaza, raising concerns about the collapse of ceasefire talks between the two sides. Earlier this week, Israel and Hamas began a new round of talks on their six-month war in Gaza, but those talks have not yielded any agreement.
“Prices are still sensitive to geopolitical developments in the Middle East, with market participants pricing in the risk of supply disruptions if tensions persist,” an analyst said.
Bitcoin price found support near $67,500. BTC has started a new uptrend and may soon return to the $72,500 resistance zone in the near term.
Bitcoin price moves higher above the $71,200 resistance level. BTC shows positive signs and could soon extend its gains above $72,500.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2335.91
The first scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2344.77, with a target price of 2351.20 and 2358.98. Alternative scenario: Sell gold at a break and hold below 2333.39, with a price target of 2326.94 and then 2319.59.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
CRUDE OIL
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $85.58 per barrel
The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $86.07, targeting a price of $86.48, then 87.05. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $85.33, targeting a price of $84.81, then 84.23.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
EURUSD
General trend: – Bearish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.07374 First scenario: Sell the euro/dollar at a break of 1.07308, targeting a price of 1.07148, then 1.06935. Alternative scenario: Buy the euro/dollar at a break of 1.07535, targeting a price of 1.07720, then 1.07944.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline
GBPUSD
Trend: down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.25367
The first scenario: selling the pound dollar at a fraction and holding below the level of 1.25265, targeting the price of 1.25068 then 1.24844. The alternative scenario: buying the pound dollar at a break and holding steady by closing above 1.25601, targeting the price of 1.25887 then 1.26108.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline
NAS100
Trend: down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 18799
The first scenario: sell the Nasdaq at a break and hold with a close below 18171, targeting the price of 18129 then 18085. Alternative scenario: buy the Nasdaq at a break and hold with a close above 18230, targeting the price of 18269 then 18316
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
– ECB interest rate decision (April) 15:15
– US jobless claims rate 15:30
– US Producer Price Index (Monthly) and (Annual) (March) 15:30
Fundamental Analysis
In March, the US inflation rate accelerated for the second consecutive month to 3.5%, slightly beating market expectations of 3.4%, while the core rate remained unchanged at 3.8%, defying market expectations of a slight slowdown to 3.7%.
On a monthly basis, both measures rose 0.4%, also beating expectations of 0.3%.
Investors are now looking to Thursday’s PPI report for further insights into current inflation trends.
Markets now expect the Federal Reserve to stand pat in June and see only two rate cuts instead of three this year.
The dollar rose across the board, with the buying interest most evident against the Australian and New Zealand dollars.
Gold prices rose on Thursday, recouping losses from the previous session, as geopolitical tensions boosted demand for the safe-haven metal.
Oil prices continued to gain on Thursday, after rising $1 a barrel in the previous session, as investors braced for an escalation of the Middle East crisis, which could involve Iran, OPEC’s third-largest oil producer.
Risk Disclaimer
Any information/articles/materials/content provided by WRC1 or displayed on its website is intended to be used solely for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a consultation on how the client should trade.
Although WRC1 has taken care to ensure that the content of such information is accurate, - it cannot be held responsible for any omission/error/miscalculation and cannot guarantee the accuracy of any material or any information contained herein.
Therefore, any reliance you place on such material is strictly at your own risk. Please note that the responsibility for using or relying on such material rests with the client and WRC1 accepts no liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation, any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
Risk Warning: FX/CFDs are complex instruments and carry a high risk of losing money quickly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how FX/CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
You should make sure that, depending on your country of residence, you are allowed to trade with WRC1 products. Please ensure that you are familiar with the company’s risk disclosure.
