Daily Market Analysis

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar index fell below 104.3 on Monday, giving up some gains from last week as investors became cautious ahead of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) report for February due later this week, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.
• Gold prices rose on Monday, supported by hopes of a US Federal Reserve rate cut in June and a weaker dollar. Speculators cut their net long positions in COMEX gold in the week to March 13. Traders see a 74% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in June. Palladium prices also rose more than 1% on Monday.
• Markets are still looking for imminent rate cuts from the Fed. June seems to be the most likely time when they are expected to pull the trigger for the first rate cut.
• Apple shares wiped out over $100 billion in value on Monday after the US filed an antitrust lawsuit against the iPhone maker. Investors are now waiting for the US core PCE data due on Friday to see if it could change the Fed’s expectations of three rate cuts this year.
• Japanese stocks slid into the red on Monday on profit-taking, with the benchmark Nikkei index falling 0.7%. Tokyo is heading for inflation, with the core consumer price index (CPI) for the capital rising 0.3% in February from a year earlier.
• Oil prices rose on Monday on supply concerns, with Brent crude trading at $85.00 and WTI at $80.00. Analysts pointed to disruptions at Russian refineries due to Ukrainian drone attacks, which affected about 12% of the country’s oil processing capacity.
• The UN Security Council also failed to pass a resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza on Friday after Russia and China vetoed the US-proposed measure. Russian Ambassador to the US, Vasily Nebenzia, said the resolution was “highly politicized” and said a number of non-permanent members of the Security Council had drafted a more balanced alternative resolution.
• Bitcoin price is once again trying to break above the $68,000 resistance zone. BTC could rally if it breaks above $67,500 and $68,000 in the near term.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2165.74

The first scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2171.96, with a target price of 2177.02 and 2183.96. Alternative scenario: Sell gold at a break and hold below 2163.73, with a price target of 2157.28 and then 2149.92.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $80.90 per barrel

The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $81.19, targeting a price of $81.66, then 82.23. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $80.52, targeting a price of $79.99, then 79.41.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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EURUSD

 

General trend: – Bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.08175 scenario

First: Sell the Euro/Dollar at a break of 1.08090, targeting a price of 1.07930, then 1.07717. Alternative scenario: Buy the Euro/Dollar at a break of 1.08317, targeting a price of 1.08502, then 1.08726.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.26064

The first scenario: Selling the pound dollar at a fraction and holding below the level of 1.25944, targeting the price of 1.25747, then 1.25523. Alternative scenario: Buying the pound dollar at a break, and holding steady by closing above 1.26280, targeting the price of 1.26566, then 1.26787.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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NAS100

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 18537

The first scenario: Buying Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close above 18586, targeting the price of 18625 then 18671. Alternative scenario: Selling Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close below 18527, targeting a price of 18485 then 18441.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

• US New Home Sales (February) 17:00

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

• The dollar index fell below 104.3 on Monday, giving up some of the gains it made last week as investors became cautious ahead of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) report for February due later this week, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.
• However, the index remained near a five-week high amid bets that US interest rates could stay higher for longer even as other major economies start to cut rates, prompting traders to seek the safe-haven dollar.
• Last week, the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly cut its key interest rate, citing the franc’s strength.
• The Bank of England has also turned less dovish, with two officials who previously voted against raising rates now backing the decision.
• The Bank of Japan, meanwhile, has moved away from negative interest rates and ended yield curve control, but it is expected to remain accommodative for now.
• The dollar also rose sharply against the yuan last week on bets of policy easing, before retreating sharply today on potential support from Chinese state banks.
• Gold prices rose on Monday as renewed bets that the Federal Reserve will start cutting rates in June lifted the metal’s appeal. A weaker dollar also added to the appeal of gold.
• West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose above $81 a barrel on Monday, recouping some of last week’s losses as various supply-side disruptions continue to roil oil markets.